Friday, August 10, 2012

Builder confidence in older homeowners more than doubles

Builder confidence in the single-family housing market for mortgage borrowers aged 55 and older improved in the second quarter from a year ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

The home price index more than doubled to 20 from 13, the highest second-quarter reading since the inception of the index in 2008.

An index number below 50 indicates more builders view conditions as poor than good. Although all index components remain below 50, they increased considerably from a year ago, the NAHB noted. For example, present sales more than doubled (from 12 to 30), while expected sales for the next six months increased 17 points to 35 and traffic of prospective buyers rose nine points to 22.

"We are seeing buyers slowly return to the 55-plus housing market as home prices begin to improve,” NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe said. "This helps unlock some of the pent-up demand from 55-plus consumers who have been sitting on the sidelines until they are able to sell their current homes at a reasonable price."

Builder confidence among the 55-plus multifamily rental indices recovered substantially since the second quarter of 2011 and is holding steady, the NAHB said. Present production climbed three points to 31, expected future production increased three points to 32, current demand for existing units dropped one point to 42 and expected future demand decreased two points to 42.

The 55-plus single-family HMI measures builder sentiment based on a survey that asks if current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six-month sales for that market are good, fair or poor (high, average or low for traffic).

In July, NAHB data revealed that homebuilder confidence of overall single-family home sales rose six points — the steepest one-month increase in more than a decade — to its highest point since March 2007.

jhilley@housingwire.com

@JustinHilley

Thursday, August 2, 2012

HARP loans total one-third of Freddie Mac refinancings in 2Q

HOUSINGWIRE

Home Affordable Refinancing Program loans totaled one-third of Freddie Mac's refinance fundings in the second quarter, the highest share since the program’s inception.

HARP enhancements resulted in additional refinance volume during the second quarter. According to a Freddie Mac analysis, 81% of homeowners who refinanced their mortgage either maintained the same loan amount or lowered their principal balance by paying in at the closing table in the second quarter.

Of those borrowers who refinanced, 59% maintained the same loan amount, while 23% reduced their principal balance. The share of borrowers who kept the same amount was the highest in the 27-year history of the analysis.

The net dollars of home equity converted to cash as part of a refinance, adjusted for consumer-price inflation, fell to the lowest level since the second quarter of 1995.

About $5 billion in net home equity was cashed out during the refinance of conventional prime-credit home mortgages, substantially less than during the peak cash-out refinance volume of $84 billion during the second quarter of 2006.

The median interest rate reduction for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage came in at about 1.5%, the largest percent reduction recorded in the history of the analysis.

“On a $200,000 loan, that translates into saving about $2,900 in interest during the next 12 months,” Freddie's Chief Economist Frank Nothaft, said. “Fixed-rate mortgage rates hit new lows during June, with 30-year product averaging 3.68% and 15-year averaging 2.95% that month.”

jhilley@housingwire.com

@JustinHilley

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Paying revolving debt more likely to re-default

Digital Risk, a firm that provides mortgage, compliance and transaction management data products, released a new mortgage analytics platform called Veritas this week to dig deeper into loan files in search of default risk.

Data released by the firm suggests borrowers who are eager to pay revolving debt, such as credit card debt, after receiving a loan modification are more likely to re-default, Digital Risk said.

Veritas was designed specifically to address the fact that while FICO scores often dictate credit decisions, they are not a panacea for detecting all risk or future risk, especially when evaluating a mortgage for a loan modification.

Veritas uses specific borrower, property and real estate market information to assess multiple layers of risk, the firm said.

"The mortgage industry is relying on outdated methods to determine risk," said Peter Kassabov, Digital Risk’s chairman and chief executive. "During the mortgage crisis, high FICO borrowers encountering distress defaulted in huge numbers, yet we still depend heavily on that one score along with CLTV to make lending and loan modification decisions. Veritas has shown there are many more impactful variables that can predict future risk with much more accuracy, and provide the reason why that risk exists. Veritas brings data and analytic confidence to the entire market, including origination, default and servicing."

Digital Risk analyzed 5 million loans originated from 2006 through 2011 using Veritas as well as 100,000 loan modifications. The study proved that a static FICO score alone cannot accurately predict a borrower's overall default risk, especially when factors like revolving debt and other financial issues surface in the borrower's history.

"We must create new models for measuring risk that are more discriminating, holistic and dynamic or the industry will repeat the mistakes of the past," said Kassabov.

kpanchuk@housingwire.com